Occasional dispatches on sport, numbers, and whatever else I can't stop turning over. Filed here roughly as they happen.
A new Stanford essay argues AI's economic gains are real but decades away, while its risks might not wait that long. The data behind the "weak links" theory of AI and growth.
The Odyssey opens this weekend. A model built from every Nolan opening predicts $100M domestic, and asks whether it becomes his first billion-dollar film outside Batman.
Spain vs Argentina, Sunday's World Cup final, run through an Elo-plus-xG model built by Claude Fable. One headline number, written down before kickoff: 64-36.
Sinner's serve was never broken at Wimbledon. A win-probability needle explains why the final felt calmer than the scoreline let on.